Economist Urges Namibia to Secure South African Grain Supplies, Strengthen Beef Biosecurity

Simonis Storm Economist, Almandro Jansen warns that drought, rising transport costs and Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) threaten food prices and export earnings, calling for early grain procurement and stronger disease controls.

“Namibia should secure grain supplies from South Africa while stocks remain available and strengthen biosecurity measures to restore access to beef export markets,” Almandro has advised.

He warned that agricultural pressures could deepen food inflation and weaken economic growth.

Jansen identified agriculture as the sector most exposed to the combination of rising fuel costs, drought conditions and the FMD outbreak. He said these pressures threaten both the availability and affordability of food, while disease-related restrictions could also undermine export earnings.

His recommendations come as Namibia faces an inflation outlook shaped by higher transport and logistics costs, uncertainty over regional food production and risks to electricity supply.

Jansen urged government to take early action on food supplies, including securing grain while South African stocks remain high.

Namibia relies on regional agricultural trade to meet part of its food requirements. Disruptions to production or supply in neighbouring countries can therefore expose domestic consumers to higher prices, particularly when transport costs and currency movements add to import expenses.

Jansen expects higher transport and logistics costs to feed into the prices of imported and processed foods, while El Niño-related weather risks could affect the South African harvest on which Namibia depends.

He warned that these pressures could become more pronounced as the direct effect of fuel-price increases begins to ease during 2027.

“Food then takes over,” Jansen said, describing the expected shift in inflationary pressure from fuel towards food.

The recommendation to secure grain supplies is intended to reduce the risk of shortages and provide greater certainty over availability. However, the cost and effectiveness of such a strategy would depend on procurement prices, storage capacity, financing, transport arrangements and the eventual size of regional harvests.

Government would also need to assess the implications for local producers, ensuring that emergency imports support food security without unnecessarily undermining domestic agricultural production.

Jansen also highlighted FMD as a major risk to Namibia’s agricultural economy.

He estimated that a 12-month suspension of beef exports could cost the country between N$5 billion and N$6 billion in export earnings and reduce GDP growth by as much as one percentage point.

The estimate illustrates the potential economic consequences of prolonged restrictions, although the actual impact would depend on the scope and duration of any suspension, the markets affected and the ability of producers to redirect sales.

Beef exports are important not only to farmers but also to the wider value chain, including abattoirs, meat processors, transport operators, veterinary services and other businesses that depend on livestock production.

A prolonged disruption could reduce farmers’ income, weaken demand for supporting services and place pressure on employment in affected areas.

Jansen therefore called for stronger biosecurity measures, describing disease control as an economic priority rather than simply an agricultural expense.

He argued that government should invest in measures capable of containing the outbreak and restoring access to export markets.

Such efforts may involve stronger surveillance, animal movement controls, testing, traceability, farm-level biosecurity and coordination with regional trading partners. The appropriate measures must be guided by veterinary authorities and the requirements of destination markets.

The economic argument for stronger disease control is linked to the potential scale of losses if export restrictions persist. Jansen estimated that FMD could cost government N$1.8 billion over two years, adding to pressure on an already constrained fiscal position.

Restoring beef export access requires more than the passage of time. Veterinary authorities must demonstrate that disease risks are adequately controlled and that relevant animal-health requirements have been met.

Jansen expects staple foods such as maize meal and bread to remain exposed to higher transport costs and regional supply pressures. If import costs rise, businesses may pass some of those increases on to consumers.

Low-income households are particularly vulnerable because food accounts for a significant share of their monthly expenditure. Higher prices leave less money available for transport, electricity, education and other necessities.

The impact could extend beyond households. Food processors, retailers, hospitality businesses and transport operators may face higher operating costs, while weaker purchasing power could reduce consumer demand.

This creates a wider economic risk: rising agricultural costs can contribute to inflation while disease-related export losses simultaneously weaken production, income and growth.

Jansen’s recommendations point to two complementary priorities: protecting domestic food availability and restoring the conditions needed for agricultural exports.

Securing grain supplies from South Africa could help manage immediate food-supply risks, provided procurement is timely and commercially viable. Strengthened biosecurity, meanwhile, could help limit the economic damage associated with foot-and-mouth disease and support efforts to regain export access.

The two measures address different problems. Grain procurement is primarily a food-supply intervention, while disease containment protects livestock production, trade and the livelihoods linked to the beef industry.

For government, the challenge is to act early without creating unsustainable fiscal commitments or weakening domestic producers.

As Namibia approaches 2027, the performance of regional harvests, the progression of FMD and the cost of transporting food will be important indicators of the pressure facing consumers and agricultural businesses.

Jansen’s warning is that food security and animal-health controls should be treated as central to economic stability. Without effective action, Namibia risks facing higher food prices at home while losing valuable export income from one of its important agricultural industries.